The Death of American Hegemony
Four years ago, the 45th president of the United States of America, Donald J. Trump entered the White House. At every turn, political analysts worried if the guardrails of American democracy would be able to prevent a leader hellbent on subverting norms and conventions. They predicted that his explosive nature would further divide a fractured nation, and worried that his actions would reduce American foreign influence abroad in favor of isolation.
Just 5 days after assuming office, Trump proved them right. On January 25th, the assistant secretary of State for African Affairs was fired, followed by nearly 1,500 foreign service and civil servant positions during Trump’s four year term. In the place of career diplomats, generals and political allies began to occupy traditionally apolitical positions.
In addition to the firing of diplomats, America became isolated from the international community. Trump began to push America away from international agreements and treaties such as the Iran Nuclear Deal and Paris Climate Accords. He focused his efforts on isolating the U.S. from its allies and attacked immigration, be it legal or illegal, through a travel ban on 13 countries, an assault on green cards and H1B-visas, along with a campaign against illegal aliens from South America and Mexico.
Was it so surprising given the explosive weight given to his 2016 campaign slogan? The call to “Make America Great Again” was one of nostalgia for the economic Golden Age of the late ’70s and early ’80s. It pushed off the ideal of American exceptionalism: the idea that, somehow, the US was an anomaly among the industrialized countries of the world. Yet, for many, America was never great. Racial injustice and inequities for LGBTQ+ and other marginalized communities continue to plague the nation even now.
Despite these inequities, the US was the hegemon or leading world power for years following the Second World War. However, it was challenged by the Soviet Union. Much of the world was forced to choose sides because of the foreign policy conducted by the clashing countries as they struggled to emerge victorious in their competition. With the dissolution of the USSR in the ’90s, it seemed that America would remain the sole hegemon internationally.
Whereas the U.S. began to lose influence in international affairs as partisanship and infighting plagued the nation, China was emerging as the next competitor to challenge it for its place internationally. Even prior to 2020, the US began to address the meteoric rise of the CCP. President Trump bashed China for its systemic theft of intellectual property and began to address job loss as workers in the US were replaced by cheaper Chinese laborers. He waged a trade war in an attempt to regain the upper hand economically. In the 2020 race, he painted his opponent, now President Biden, as unfit to address China.
Still, China remains on track to replace the US as the hegemon in the next 20–30 years. Traditional warfare with tanks and guns have been replaced by cyber warfare. Even if the US were to engage in traditional warfare, China has acknowledged the US’s superiority in offensive weapons. They’ve opted to spend the last decades improving their defensive capabilities in order to prevent the US from even attempting to reach its sphere of influence. Air defenses, rocketry, submarines, and missiles have been created solely to defend Chinese interests.
For example, the South China Sea, a hotly contested region in Asia has been surrendered to the Chinese. U.S allies like Taiwan and the Philippines are unwilling to face China in fear of economic retribution. In 2020, the Phillippines withdrew from a joint defense agreement with the US. When the US withdrew from the Asia-Pacific trade deal in 2017, its members opted to join the RCEP, a trade deal signed by countries in Asia and the Pacific including China, Korea, Australia, Japan, and 10 Southeast Asian countries, instead. India and the US were left out of the deal.
In cyberwarfare, China has put significantly more investment than any other country into developing Artificial Intelligence, telecommunications, surveillance, in an effort to ready itself for the second half of the 21st century. 5G telecommunications technology from China has already spread throughout Europe. Requests to prevent it by Trump through executive orders were summarily rejected by the UK, demonstrating the allure of Chinese developments for even America’s closest allies. When taxes on the export of U.S. telecommunications components for 5G were imposed, China began to develop its own parts and achieve self-sufficiency.
These technologies have lasting implications for the future of humankind. Healthcare, transportation, communication, retail, production of goods-essentially everything that society runs on is going to be transformed by these developments. China is taking the first step towards achieving these goals.
Much of this is possible because of the economic development that occurred in China since the ’90s. “However many times you hear the China growth story, it continues to have the capacity to shock and amaze,” says Columbia historian Adam Tooze. “In scale and speed, it is unlike any previous experience.”
In 1990, the GDP of China was around 360 billion. In 2020, the Chinese GDP is upwards of 14 trillion. Cities that were once desolate third-world backwaters have been transformed into futuristic landscapes reminiscent of those in science fiction novels.
It is clear what China’s goal for the next few decades is. The Chinese aim to unite Eurasia around a Chinese sphere of influence with the use of the Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure development strategy adopted by the Chinese government in 2013 to invest in nearly 70 countries and international organizations. Through the expansion of economic investment into Africa and Europe, China wants to further improve trade and development abroad.
Domestically, Chinese citizens are doing better than they ever have. Highspeed transportation, housing, utilities, and more are constantly being developed, leaving citizens satisfied and wealthier than they ever could have dreamed of just 50 years ago.
The Covid-19 pandemic could perhaps become the catalyst for China to replace America. Even though the novel coronavirus was first discovered in Wuhan, less than 5000 deaths have occurred in China due to the virus. Hospitals with capacity for thousands were constructed in mere weeks. The government imposed quarantines and lockdowns were swiftly implemented, and after a couple of months lifted.
In stark contrast, the US has recorded over 400k recorded coronavirus deaths. The economy remains volatile. Under President Biden, the development of a vaccine is the goal to halt the economic recession impacting America. Even in vaccine development though, China is challenging the US. Whereas richer companies have snapped up the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, poorer countries opt to go for Chinese and Russian vaccines instead. The UAE has already approved the Chinese Sinopharm vaccine claiming an 86% effectiveness. Many other countries look to follow suit.
When looking at the challenge China poses to the US we cannot rely solely on the outdated views of the past. The US has demonstrated resilience in the past, but it must not remain stagnant. As China continues to further develop, US universities and corporations must continue to innovate in AI, quantum computing, and cyberwarfare. America must once again join its allies in staunch opposition to China and fight for international influence. The question, however, is if it can achieve it in time.
